The Polish defense minister just has underlined in Polish TV that Russian drones have conducted active reconaissance at the border with Poland (mainly around the Kaliningrad Oblast) in 2015. There also had been reports of reconaissance activities near the border with Belarus in summer 2015.
Also on 12 May 2016, his British counterpart spoke of a “Russian act of aggression” when RAF’s Typhoon fighters were scrambled from Estonia’s Amari air base in order to intercept three Russian military transport planes. The Latvian army also reported an incident with six Russian Su-fighters.
At the same time, Russian media outlets are pushing the isse that NATO is threatening Russia, culminating in the claim it might prepare a large-scale summer offensive against Russia. Additionally, expert note Russia is really preparing the occupation of the Baltic States as it has been convinced the west is afraid of a real military conflict, happy-talking military realities on the ground (see the west tolerating Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria and the continuing ignorance of large-scale Russian military involvement and build-up in the occupied Donbas and around Ukrainian borders). Thus, the Baltic States would become a valuable bargaining chip in another round of negotiation games with the west.