Two statements of NATO’s Central and Eastern Europe Commander Hans-Lothar Domröse, a German who is responsible for implementing the “new NATO strategy” to deter Russia (anybody seen a NATO-strategy on how to deter Russia until now?) underline we really have to be worried:
1. It is unrealistic that Russia will embark on a large-scale invasion in Ukraine
“because the costs would be terribly high” for Russia.
Has NATO even studied Russian warfare-methods?
– Russia traditionally uses “cannon-fodder” for the first wave, consisting of fanatics, criminals, drug-addicts, ethnic minorities etc. whose death hardly bothers anybody in Russia or anywhere else (as the ignorance of several thousand Russians who died in the Donbas in Russia’s war against Ukraine proves every day).
– Plus, those persons are an useful instrument to spread propaganda, terror and to commit crimes against civilians / the local population
– Russia relies on highly specialized tactical groups for the “real warfare”; heavily based on paratrooper-battalions.
– Such troops will not be used for a “classic war”, but to destroy or bloc infrastructure (railways, energy, water, crucial production lines) and communication possibilities (with a focus on electronic communication) in order to provoke chaos and a collapse of the state.
So – for whom would the costs be terribly high?
2. NATO shows the Baltic States that we take their warnings seriously: Therefore NATO will install permanent staff in each east European member state consisting out of 40 people as a first step. In the case of emergency, those persons would secure the deployment of rapid reaction forces. However, the military staff would not store heavy material as the western partners do not have sufficient material and money to provide it (sic!). NATO could ensure a joint comand post, ammunition, water, bread, dressing material. The respective states/armies should themselves ensure combat-readiness in regard to the Russian threat.
– Hopefully NATO has studied recent Russian exercises that among others have focused on blocking such command outposts.
– NATO does not offer answers on how it intends to stop the further militarization of Kaliningrad (embedded between Poland and Lithuania)
– Wouldn’t it be the purpose of NATO to show solidarity with endangered members and a core task to send allied troops instead of passing them some weapons to look for themselves? (Polish “Patriot”-missiles will not be able to stop Iskander-missiles fired from Kaliningrad).
– Does NATO really consider Poland, Romania or the Baltic states full members worth defending them against Russia?
As long as NATO does not send brigade combat teams and at least 20.000 ground troops to the eastern European front-lines states it will not stop Russia from further testing NATO.